Twins Talk

• One of the Twins’ biggest offseason questions is whether Carl Pavano will return. Rumors are that he’s seeking a three-year deal. His age and injury concerns will scare off a lot of teams, but he’s also one of the best free agent pitchers on the market after Cliff Lee. The AP’s Dave Campbell talked to Pavano tonight at the Wild game; Pavano wouldn’t say if the Twins have offered him a contract yet or if he’d accept arbitration again. ESPN’s Buster Olney was in Fargo on Saturday for a book signing. I asked him about Pavano, and for what it’s worth, Olney said Pavano is a really great guy and enjoyed his time in Minnesota. Pavano is also a finalist in the American Mustache Institute’s Mustached American of the Year award. Click the link to vote for him!
• The Orioles are apparently interested in trading for J.J. Hardy. The Twins sure soured on Hardy quickly, and I think they might regret it if they let him go. His 2010 statistics don’t look all that impressive, but he was much better in the second half after he recovered from his various injuries.
• A few days after winning Manager of the Year, the Twins gave Ron Gardenhire and every member of his coaching staff two-year extensions. I’m clearly not the world’s biggest Gardenhire fan, but this was to be expected. I’m much more upset that Scott Ullger will continue to get runners thrown out at the plate for the next two years.
• A few minor (and I mean minor) signings: Pitcher Phil Dumatrait and first baseman Jeff Bailey were both signed to minor league deals and invited to spring training. They also signed Justin Huber, who played with the Twins in 2009.

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  Ron Gardenhire

  EDIT: Manager of the Year IS voted on before the postseason starts. I completely blanked on that fact when I wrote this post, so a lot of what I wrote doesn’t apply. I do, however, still think Washington deserved it more.
  Ron Gardenhire won his first Manager of the Year award Wednesday. I’ve complained about Gardenhire a lot, and this is no exception. I don’t really understand why he deserved it over Texas’ Ron Washington. Yes, Gardenhire had one of the best records in baseball without Joe Nathan and Justin Morneau for half the year. But that was in a weak division with plenty of other players to pick up the slack – not to mention his annual playoff embarrassment. Washington led the Rangers to their first World Series with a team not many people picked to contend, taking out superior Tampa Bay and New York teams along the way. Gardenhire winning strikes me more as a lifetime achievement award. He won his 800th game in 2010 and has finished second in voting five times. But if you want to hand out an award for those reasons, pick a year when there’s no other clear candidate.

• The Twins are rumored to be in the running for Japan’s Tsuyoshi Nishioka. He’s a 26-year-old speedy middle infielder who won the Japanese Pacific League batting title last season.
• The Marlins traded second baseman Dan Uggla to the Braves for a utility player and a relief pitcher Tuesday. There’s no way to know what went on behind the scenes, but I hope Bill Smith tried to make a play for him. He would’ve been a perfect fit in the Twins lineup, and the Marlins gave him away.
• ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that the Twins have interest in former Arizona ace Brandon Webb. Webb was once one of the best pitchers in baseball and is only 31 years old. He’s coming off a season lost to injuries, and he could be a great guy to take a flier on if he can be had for an incentive-laden deal.
• The Twins signed pitcher Eric Hacker last week. Hacker spent 2010 with the Giants AAA club, going 16-8 with a 4.51 ERA. He will turn 28 in March. This would normally fly under the radar, except they signed him to a major league deal and gave him a 40-man roster spot. This seems totally unnecessary for a guy likely to be a mop-up guy in the majors or a starter in AAA. I would hope the Twins didn’t sign him because of his 16-8 record, but knowing their aversion to advanced statistics, that’s probably exactly why they signed him.
• NBC Sports’ Craig Calcaterra did a series of the best and worst uniforms for all 30 MLB teams. Here’s his writeup for the Twins. He rates the 1960-71 (and current home alternates) as the best, and the ’80s and ’90s pinstriped look with the “M” on the hat as the worst. I agree the “M” hats were awful, especially over the classy “TC” logo. The picture of Rod Carew that Calcaterra uses in that link, with the ’70s red, white and black look, is actually one of my favorites.

The Giants win the pennant!

Tonight, the Giants and Rangers will face off in Game 1 of the World Series. Once the Yankees and Phillies were eliminated, a majority of the East Coast switched off the playoffs, along with more casual baseball fans everywhere. But I say this World Series will be the best one in years.

In the past decade, the World Series has been one of the most anti-climactic championships in sports:

2009: Yankees win in 6 games
2008: Phillies win in 5 games
2007: Red Sox win in 4 games
2006: Cardinals win in 5 games
2005: White Sox win in 4 games
2004: Red Sox win in 4 games
2003: Marlins win in 6 games
2002: Angels win in 7 games
2001: Diamondbacks win in 7 games
2000: Yankees win in 5 games

The Yankees played in four of those Series, winning two of them. The Red Sox played in two and won both. The Phillies, in the midst of a mini-dynasty, have played in the last two, winning one. All in all, the Yankees, Red Sox or Phillies have been one or both teams in seven of the last 10 World Series.

Seven of the last 10 World Series have also been snorefests of five or four games. We haven’t gone to seven games since 2002, which incidentally included the Giants.

So why will this series be better?

Pitching: The Phillies pitching staff of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels got all the press, but the Rangers and especially the Giants have pitchers who are just as exciting. The Giants have two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, an excellent No. 2 guy in Matt Cain, the talented-but-erratic Jonathan Sanchez and 21-year-old phenom Madison Bumgarner. The Giants also have Brian Wilson, who has to be one of the more entertaining closers of all time (watch his interview with Jim Rome here). The Rangers have Cliff Lee, which is just kind of unfair.

Star power: A complaint I’ve heard is that there will be no star power without the Yankees or Phillies. Beyond Lincecum and Lee, try Josh Hamilton, the likely MVP-winner in the American League. Or Vladimir Guerrero, one of the best hitters of the past decade.

Storylines: This World Series is a journalist’s dream. You have Hamilton, who overcame severe drug addictions to become one of the best hitters in the game. You have Michael Young and Aubrey Huff, who were two of the longest tenured major leaguers to never play in a postseason. You have Guerrero, who will be in his first World Series. You have Rangers pitcher Colby Lewis, who, after failing in the majors, pitched in Japan for two seasons before returning to be the Rangers No. 2 starter. No shortage of good storylines here.

New teams: The Giants were in the ’02 Series, losing to the Angels, but they haven’t won since 1954 (the year of the famous Willie Mays catch). The Rangers have never even been to a World Series before.

Evenly matched: There is no clear favorite in this World Series. The Rangers offense is light years ahead of the Giants, but the Giants have the clear edge in pitching once the Rangers get past Cliff Lee. Anything can happen in a short series, but this has as good a chance as any to go six or seven games.

No East Coast teams: Although I’m preparing myself for Tim McCarver and Joe Buck to spend half the broadcast analyzing whether Derek Jeter will re-sign with the Yankees in the offseason.

I can’t even decide who to root for because I like both teams so much. So while the rest of the country is tuning out of this World Series…I’ll be tuning in.

Alexi Casilla

With Orlando Hudson almost certain to leave as a free agent, Alexi Casilla is likely to be the starting second baseman in 2011. Hudson was a valuable player for the Twins, and it’s risky to entrust the starting job with Casilla, who has been average at best and downright awful at worst.

Casilla was signed as an amateur free agent in 2003 by the Los Angeles Angels and acquired by the Twins after the 2005 season in exchange for reliever J.C. Romero. He’s been in the majors almost full-time since 2007, mostly as a bench player. He’s occasionally held a starting job, but never hit well enough to hold onto one.

He’s been around forever, but he just turned 25 in July and had the best year of his career with the bat in 2010, hitting .276/.331/.395 with a 97 OPS+ in 69 games. Along with youth, he’s improved his strikeout rate and is making better contact than he did in previous years. It’s also possible he was very unlucky in 2009, when he batted .202/.280/.259 — his BABIP that year was .238, and it rose to a much more sustainable .304 in 2010.

So which Casilla is the real version? From a purely numbers standpoint, I would say we can expect something closer to 2010 than 2009, along with the fact that he’ll just be entering his prime and could still improve. A 97 OPS+ over a full season is just fine for a middle infielder as long as he bats near the bottom of the lineup. He may also benefit from increased playing time and having job security at second base. His fielding isn’t the best, but he’s made some eye-popping plays over the years and his UZR at second base improved from -7.2 in 2009 to 0.4 in 2010.

But there is one more advantage he has, and it is the likely reason the Twins are going with him: He’s under team control through 2013.

Jon Rauch could be taking his talents and neck tatoos elsewhere in 2011.

The Twins had an excellent offseason last year. They locked up Joe Mauer, acquired J.J. Hardy from the Brewers, brought back Carl Pavano and signed Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome. But with the payroll rising with Mauer’s new contract kicking in in 2011, the Twins will be faced with a problem: Pavano, Hudson and Thome, three major contributors for the Twins this season, will all be free agents. Other players who are now free agents include Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Brian Fuentes and Jon Rauch.

Hardy is arbitration eligible, but rumors going around now make it sound like the Twins won’t give him a raise and let him walk (although he could still sign a new contract with the Twins). After batting just .268/.320/.394 , he wouldn’t be a tragic loss, but that is passable production for a No. 9 hitter and the Twins don’t have an obvious replacement in the minor leagues.

Eight players are locked up for 2011, for a total of $70.5 million: Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Joe Nathan, Scott Baker, Brendan Harris, Nick Blackburn and Denard Span (Cuddyer actually has a $10.5 million club option for ’11, but I included him here since it’s a given that it will be picked up). Two more have a club options: Jason Kubel for $3.5 million and Nick Punto for $5 million. Arbitration eligible players include Hardy, Delmon Young, Francisco Liriano, Clay Condrey, Kevin Slowey, Pat Neshek, Alexi Casilla, Glen Perkins and Matt Tolbert.

This purely speculation at this point, but I see it playing out like this: The Twins will pick up Kubel’s option but not Punto’s; Liriano, Young, Slowey, and Casilla will definitely return. I think Neshek, Perkins, and Tolbert are maybes, and Hardy and Condrey as likely to be gone.

But the real question here is the free agents. Let’s break them down:

Carl Pavano: By all accounts Pavano has enjoyed his time in Minnesota, but he had an excellent season and has a reputation of being all about the money. I’ve heard rumors that he’s looking for a multi-year deal, which I doubt the Twins would do (or could afford). Whether he’ll get it, with his age and injury history, is a different story. My guess is he’s gone.
Orlando Hudson: His production has dropped from his peak years with Arizona, but he was still a valuable contributor. He’ll come cheaper than Pavano, but with the re-emergence of Casilla, Hudson is probably gone as well.
Jim Thome: Everything he’s said indicates he wants to stay in Minnesota. I doubt the Twins will overspend for him, and it’s possible they could get outbid, but I don’t see much of a market for a 40-year-old slugger who can’t play the field. Yes, Thome had a great year, but players his age have a way of breaking down quickly. Remember the lesson the Blue Jays learned signing Frank Thomas after his comeback year with Oakland? I hope Thome comes back, and I think he will, but it won’t be catastrophic if he doesn’t.
Matt Guerrier: With the exception of a poor 2008, Guerrier has been a solid and reliable member of the Twins bullpen for five seasons. There hasn’t been much talk about his pending free agency, and I think the Twins will bring him back.
Jesse Crain: A very polarizing player. For the first half of the year he was the Crainwreck, and the second half of the year the Twins best reliever. He was quoted in a Pioneer Press story today that he’s excited to test free agency and possibly be a closer.

“I’d love the opportunity to (close),” Crain said. “I guess we’ll see what happens this offseason; a team might come and offer me that. It’ll be (interesting) to see what happens.”

Brian Fuentes: Everyone knew he was a rental when the Twins traded for him, and he wants to close somewhere. He’ll be gone.
Jon Rauch: He hasn’t said he wants to close and is probably better suited to middle relief anyway, but some team might give him a chance (and a raise) after the 21 saves he racked up in 2010.

The bullpen could get interesting if Guerrier, Crain, Fuentes and Rauch all leave. Joe Nathan will be 36 and coming off Tommy John surgery. Glen Perkins, Jose Mijares, Alex Burnett, and Pat Neshek all had up-and-down seasons, Anthony Slama pitched poorly in his major league trials and Brian Duensing will be a permanent member of the rotation if Pavano leaves. The middle infield could be as ugly as the days of Juan Castro and Luis Rivas if Hardy and Hudson leave.

The good news is the bulk of the starting rotation and the starting lineup will return, but the 2011 Twins will definitely be very different than 2010.

I’m not dead, although this blog has been lately. Sometimes life gets in the way, and sometimes your blog is moved over to a new system that causes everything to be erased but the actual text (pictures, links, formatting, etc.). In my case, both things happened.

I promise I’ll be a better blogger in the near future, but I’m in no mood at the moment to write about the Twins-Yankees debacle we are being presented with. When this ALDS is over, I’ll try to get back in the writing groove again.

In the meantime, I’ll leave you with this depressing bullet list:

• Since 2002, the Yankees have lost every ALDS they’ve played in EXCEPT when they face the Twins.
• The Twins have lost 11 postseason games in a row, which ties them with the Phillies for second all time. They trail only the Red Sox, who lost 13.
• The Twins are now 18-56 against the Yankees, including postseason games, since Ron Gardenhire became manager.
• The last three Twins pitchers to win a postseason game were Johan Santana (2004 ALDS), LaTroy Hawkins (2003 ALDS) and Joe Mays (2002 ALCS). Joe Mays hasn’t won ANY game in the Major Leagues since 2005.

Fuentes makes Russell Branyan look silly in Saturday's game.

Days after acquiring reliever Randy Flores from Colorado, the Twins made another splash by getting closer Brian Fuentes from the Angels for a player to be named later. Fuentes was once one of the top closers in baseball from 2005-08 for the Colorado Rockies. In his prime he was averaging 10 to 11 strikeouts per 9 innings, was a ground ball machine and had an ERA+ of 165, 143, 156 and 172 in those four years.

He signed with the Angels after the 2008 season, and while he led the American League in saves last year with 48, his actual performance slipped quite a bit – he had a 3.93 ERA and his WHIP increased to 1.40 (in his Colorado years it was always around 1.10). His strikeouts have also decreased as his walks have increased, and he doesn’t induce nearly as many ground balls as he used to.

Being left handed, he was never a prototypical closer, and will now fit into the Twins bullpen as a setup man and lefty specialist. He made his Twins debut Saturday making Russell Branyan look silly on four pitches to end the game. He was never great against right handers, allowing a .708 OPS to them in his career, and this season has been even worse against them, allowing a .793 OPS. The good news, though, is that he is still death to lefties with his sidearm/slider combo. This season, he has held them to .132/.209/.158, for an OPS of .367(!).

Fuentes no longer has the stuff to be a top-notch closer, and luckily, the Twins won’t be using him in that role. But with his lefty dominance and still striking out about a batter per inning, he should be an excellent addition to the bullpen.

To shore up the bullpen with the recent injuries to Jose Morales and Ron Mahay, the Twins have acquired left-handed reliever Randy Flores off waivers from the Colorado Rockies.

Flores has been a fairly mediocre reliever during his career (career ERA+ of 97) but has been quite good this season with a 2.96 ERA in 27 1/3 innings. The Rockies mostly brought him to just face one batter, although he’s faced almost the same numbers of righties as lefties this season and is actually better against righties and may be misplaced if they want him to fill Mahay’s role. Mahay held lefties to .219/.239/.281 this season, while Flores has held righties to .229/.327/.375 and lefties to .220/.316/.460.

It’s still good acquisition for the Twins with how hard they’ve been hit by injuries to the bullpen. Flores will probably take on Mahay’s role despite the difference in splits, but if he can duplicate his Colorado numbers he will be very valuable to the Twins. He is also only making $650,000 and they didn’t have to give up anyone to get him.

Last week, Kevin Slowey came up with some elbow soreness and it was determined he had to miss his next start. Because Brian Duensing, the normal fill-in starter, was already a member of the rotation having replaced Nick Blackburn, the Twins had to look to the minor leagues for a spot starter. The AAA rotation currently consists of Blackburn, Jeff Manship, Ryan Mullins, Glen Perkins, Matt Fox and Anthony Swarzak.

Blackburn has pitched well in his two starts since being demoted, but assuming the Twins want him to get more work, he wasn’t an option. Mullins (4.60 ERA) and Fox (4.16) have been adequate, but neither has major league experience (Mullins also happens to be on the DL, so he obviously was not an option either). Swarzak has had scattered major league experience but has been awful this year inAAA (6.94 ERA). Which leaves Perkins and Manship.

Neither have been particularly good in AAA. Perkins has a 6.08 ERA while Manship is at 5.13. But with one big difference: Manship has pitched in the majors this year, and pitched well. He made one spot start in May and held the Indians to two runs in six innings. He also worked 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the Phillies in relief of a Blackburn implosion. Manship’s 2010 ERA in the majors is 2.45.

Now, compare that to Perkins. He hasn’t started a major league game, or even made an appearance since August 2009. His 2009 ERA was 5.89. His 2010 ERA for Rochester is 6.08.

To me, this shouldn’t have been a difficult choice. Neither Manship nor Perkins is a great option, but Manship has pitched better, and more recently in the major leagues. But as you know, the Twins chose Perkins to start Wednesday’s game against the Chicago White Sox, the division rival that they are locked in a first place tie with in one of the most important series of the year. Perkins predictably gave up five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings before giving way to mop-up man Ron Mahay, and the Twins lost 6-1.

The Twins make plenty of questionable decisions, but this is one I really don’t understand.